How Many Units Should I Order From a Factory the First Time?
This is one of the most stressful decisions for new product brands.
Order too little → you run out of stock. Order too much → you get buried in inventory.
There isn't a magic number. But there is a smart way to think about it.
🧠 First Rule: Your First Order Is Not About Maximizing Profit
It's about:
🛡️ Reducing risk while learning
Your first factory run is a data-gathering mission, not a scaling moment.
You are testing:
- Will people actually buy?
- At what price?
- How fast does stock move?
- What feedback comes back?
So the goal is not:
"What's the cheapest per unit?"
It's:
"What order size lets me survive if I'm wrong?"
This is why validating demand before MOQ is so critical for first-time buyers.
🚨 Why Founders Over-Order
Most beginners think:
- "If I don't hit the MOQ, I look small."
- "Lower unit cost = better business."
But factories optimize for production efficiency. You must optimize for cash flow and survival.
A cheaper unit price means nothing if you're stuck with 700 unsold units.
This is exactly the problem inventory risk creates for small businesses.
🎯 A Simple Way to Estimate Your First Order
Think in months of sales, not units.
Ask yourself:
- How many units could I realistically sell per month?
- If I'm wrong, how long can I hold stock without stress?
For most new brands, a healthy first order covers:
👉 1–3 months of expected sales
Not 12 months.
📦 Example
You estimate:
30 units per month
Then a safer first order is:
30–90 units
Even if factory MOQ is 300+, you now see the gap between factory logic and brand reality.
That gap = risk.
This is why MOQ being too high is such a common problem for small brands.
💰 Don't Ignore Cash Flow
Inventory is not just product. It's:
- Cash you can't use
- Marketing budget you don't have
- Flexibility you lose
Small brands die when all their money sits in boxes.
This is why understanding inventory risk and MOQ vs cash flow is essential before placing your first order.
🧪 What If You're Not Sure About Demand?
Before committing:
- Run preorders
- Test ads
- Collect waitlist signups
- Launch a small pilot
Data reduces guesswork.
Learn more about how to validate product demand before MOQ and testing product demand before factory orders.
🧠 The Real Answer
Your first order should be:
- ✔ Small enough that unsold stock doesn't hurt
- ✔ Large enough to learn from real sales
- ✔ Within your cash comfort zone
If placing the order makes you anxious, it's probably too big.
📌 Final Thought
Factories think in batches. You think in survival cycles.
Your first order is not the one that makes you rich.
It's the one that keeps you alive long enough to get it right next time.
This is why first-time factory buyers should focus on risk reduction, not profit maximization. If you're facing high MOQs, learn what small brands can actually do.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's a safe first factory order size?
Many new brands start with 1–3 months of expected sales rather than a full large batch. Think in months of sales, not units. If you estimate 30 units per month, order 30–90 units. Your first order should be small enough that unsold stock doesn't hurt, but large enough to learn from real sales.
Should I order MOQ on my first factory order?
Not necessarily. If factory MOQ is much higher than your 1–3 month sales estimate, ordering full MOQ can be risky. For example, if you estimate 30 units/month but MOQ is 300 units, that's 10 months of inventory—too risky for a first order. Consider negotiating smaller quantities or pooling demand with others.
What if I'm not sure about demand before ordering?
Before committing to a large order, validate demand through preorders, test ads, collect waitlist signups, or launch a small pilot batch. Data reduces guesswork. If you're uncertain, start even smaller. Your first order is a data-gathering mission—you're testing whether people will buy, at what price, and how fast stock moves.
How do I calculate my first order size?
Estimate your monthly sales realistically, then order 1–3 months worth. Ask: How many units could I realistically sell per month? If I'm wrong, how long can I hold stock without stress? For most new brands, 1–3 months of expected sales is a healthy first order. If placing the order makes you anxious, it's probably too big.
Related Guides
📌 Central Hub:
Factory MOQ Too High — Complete GuideMOQ Too High?
What small brands can actually do
MOQ vs Cash Flow
Hidden trade-offs small brands ignore
How Small Brands Avoid Dead Stock
Strategies to prevent getting stuck
How to Test Product Demand
Test demand before placing big orders
What If Inventory Doesn't Sell?
Recovery strategies for unsold inventory
Inventory Risk for Small Business
Understanding and managing inventory risk